Ethiopia: Meles's death leaves a power vacuum in Ethiopia and threats in the Horn of Africa

The death of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, causes a power vacuum in the country and a possible increase in insecurity in the Horn of Africa. Meles had been in power 21 years when, as leader of an alliance of rebel groups, overthrew the dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Since then, the prime minister has led to tight control Ethiopia's development focused on economic growth, becoming an important ally of the U.S. in the l ucha against Islamic extremism in the Horn of Africa. Gave a key role to forge Ethiopian diplomacy and good personal relationships with its partners to Int'l. However, the succession of Meles causing much speculation as n or announced how will the transition process and the Constitution does not specify how it should be done in the absence of the Prime Minister. Furthermore, it is not known with certainty the potential role the Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn , and feared that den struggles within the ruling elite. Desalegn, 47, is also the foreign minister and since the death of Meles has accepted Article 75 of the Constitution which states that " acts on behalf of the Prime Minister in his absence ." Parliament will meet on Thursday morning, but no details were given of the possible election of a new leader. "We are in a highly personalistic regime, where there is no system of succession.'s Power is entirely in the hands of the prime minister , "he said before the death of Meles a specialist in the area to remain anonymous. The result of this process of change is essential to define relations with neighboring countries, especially the country's greatest enemy, Eritrea, analysts said.

Meles, security essential pillar in the Horn of Africa

"What happens in the region depends on what happens in Ethiopia," said a political analyst at the United Nations (UN) Joakim Gundel, referring to Meles sent his army twice in six years to combat movements Islamists. "Development in Ethiopia in the next few weeks will soon affect the economic landscape, politics and security in the Horn of Africa for years," says Jason Mosley, the Chatham House study center.

Government of Meles in Ethiopia

The power in the country rests in the coalition People's Revolutionary Democratic Front Ethiopian (EPRDF) , which consists of four organizations with four million members, one of which is formed by the former guerrillas of Meles, the Front People's Liberation Tigray Region (TPLF). His political ideology is based on democracy and federalism , which advocates self-determination of individual ethnic groups in Ethiopia in contrast to the dominance of a single ethnic group that controlled the country for years. Each state region has its own parliament and government, but everyone has as key the development of the free market. "Senior executives of the EPRDF, particularly among the TPLF, try to assert and protect their interests," he assured the UN analyst. "The question is whether the new ruling elite can reach aconsensus on a new leader , and if the leader is able to manage the interests of all, maintaining the country's direction in economic and security matters, "he said.

Risks in the succession of power

The biggest concern for the succession of Meles is the threat of some rebel groupsseeking to achieve their aspirations and move up in power during the transition. Among them is the National Liberation Front Ogaden (ONLF) wants independent the southeastern region of Ogaden, which has most of its territory in Somalia, and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the largest ethnic group of country that fought against the dictatorial regime of Mengistu. However, political analyst at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Roland Marchal, said that the situation in Ethiopia is not serious yet as the system remains stable managed by Meles. Marchal not foresee a change diplomat, but a " continuity "of the current policy , especially in its relationship with Sudan, but warns that may become visible "shadows" in relations with neighboring Uganda , Kenya and Somalia . However, the biggest threat is in the ties with Eritrea . Take 1998 to 2000 between China and Ethiopia, there was a bloody war that killed between 70,000 and 100,000 people. After this, Eritrea became independent but tension remains between what has causedtheir border is one of the most militarized in the world. For the study center Chatham House, the transition can be a chance to "reconciliation "both countries, while Ethiopia will not try to" intervene more strongly in Eritrea "and find no interest in this" feeding the instability that might arise." Moreover, spokesman Ethiopia diplomacy, Dina Mufti, said that policies "and foreign" country are "here to stay".

Addis Ababa is mourning from Wednesday

The announcement of the death of Meles was greeted with surprise as he had not informed virtually his health , because the authorities control almost all media .There is no known cause of death, but not appeared in public since June. Despite his disappearance for two months, Mosley says the population had lost confidence in the EPRDF, so he thinks that "if things continue to move smoothly in two or three weeks, maybe the (party) can overcome this ". However, despite the amount of tributes from foreign leaders to the prime minister, numerous human rights organizations and environmentalists have criticized Meles. Proponents of this praise his f unction economic plan and its "strategic" for peace between Sudan and South Sudan or in its fight against Islamist Somalis. Instead, critics accuse the government of Meles the poverty of the majority of the population and the lack of freedom suffered by the country, a key example being thekilling of hundreds of protesters and thousands arrested in 2005 , when the opposition of his match had a very high number of seats in parliament, so they imprisoned the leaders of this group to life imprisonment for treason.