Sarkozy will win

Contrary to all the polls and the impressions left by the television face to face Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande , the French president on Sunday achieved re-election with 50.2% of the vote, according to Bruno Jerome, a political scientist at the University Paris II - Panthéon-Assas, one of the most reputed schools of France in the field of Law, Economics, Political Science and Business Management. As the margin of error given by this model is + / - 1.7%, Jerome also given a chance to win Hollande, although certainly much that much of the 11.1% of votes of the Left Front of Jean-Luc Melenchon going to go in the second round to a Hollande "pro-European, socially liberal and that the debate was quite firm with immigration." 'With 43.7% of the first round, the left is far from 50%, "says the professor. "And in the Fifth Republic, the left has had to have 49% in the first round to win in the second." The model we drove, which is a statistical model, not a poll, said that Sarkozy will win by a whisker, with 50.2% of votes. With a margin of error of 1.7%, which translates into a fork of 48.5% to 51.9%. We reached it after relating the results of the first round with economic variables, political, balance of power in the regions, regional unemployment rates, the popularity of outgoing President, the income per family policy. The conclusion is a result very tight, with little advantage to the right.