Report on Iran's Nuclear Program A war is likely

This report is unlikely to provide relaxation on the contrary. In its latest report on Iran's nuclear program raises the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the regime, to have accelerated the development of its nuclear facilities solid . Among others, it is about the Parchin military site southeast of Tehran, to the nuclear watchdog request access. The IAEA Member States of the information to show that Iran has tested there components of nuclear warheads. For years, there have been no work around the building, the report says. Since then, the IAEA did in January 2012, but was called for access to Parchin, a lot happened suddenly: the buildings were demolished, materials removed and the soil dug up. Particularly explosive: Tehran should have doubled the production capacity of the plant in Fordo alone last quarter. Around 2,000 centrifuges had been installed in the underground facility near the center of the country in the city of Qom. In May, there had been only about 1,000, says the IAEA. However, only about 700 of the centrifuges are operating. The inspectors confirming the statement made ​​by an Iranian official , who had boasted in late July with the fact that his country has produced thousands of new centrifuges. The plant at Fordow is to destroy the basis of their underground construction difficult. Iran is there to enrich uranium to up to 20 percent of this degree of enrichment it is technically only a small step to reach the 90 percent needed to build a nuclear bomb. "Any further increase in Fordow complicated the situation," said nuclear expert Olli Heinonen, who worked for 27 years for the IAEA to SPIEGEL ONLINE. This is especially true for a settlement with Jerusalem. "For Israel, the red line is likely to be exceeded if Fordow is fully operational, "Yoel Guzansky, scientists said at the Israeli Institute for National Securities Studies SPIEGEL ONLINE. Between 2005 and 2009 Guzansky was in Israeli National Security Council, which advises the Prime Minister on security matters, responsible for the Iranian nuclear dossier.

Khamenei denies: Iran does not want nuclear weapons

The IAEA report is likely to reinforce Israel's concerns that Tehran pursued regardless of the international threats to its nuclear program - and soon could have crossed a threshold, after the opinion of the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is a "zone of immunity". Even with a military attack Israel could no longer prevent Iran ascends to "latent nuclear power." Whether Iran actually with his president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to build a nuclear bomb remains unclear yet. The signals are contradictory. The religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , had said on Thursday at the meeting of Non-Aligned Countries, Iran does not pursue military nuclear program. "We do not manufacture nuclear weapons and will never do so," he said. Iran will not give up but his right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. That under the guise of a civilian nuclear research would be made, a "lie" of the United States. The country appears to rely on a dual strategy. "For Iranians, the best option is to leave the world in the dark and at the same time show that they have the capacity to build a bomb. They have the advantage of deterrence already on their side," said Mehrzad Boroujerdi from the American Syracuse University in upstate New York's strategy. But therein lies a significant risk. "This uncertainty leads to prevent that Israel wants Iran acquired in the first major nuclear capabilities," said Yoel Guzansky. Moreover, the Iranian regime has in the past not just helped to win the confidence of the international community.

Israeli media speculate about preventive attack

From the perspective of Tehran all the characters speak for the fastest possible nuclear expansion. The overthrow of the Gaddafi regime in Libya with NATO help, and the civil war in Syria have strengthened the feeling of threat to bomb attacks on Iranian scientists come with computer viruses and attacks on industrial facilities. "Is louder the threats from Israel, the stronger Iran probably interested to exceed a certain level at which you would be immune from attack," said Iran expert Boroujerdi. In Israeli media speculated for weeks about the fact that a military strike is approaching. "Instead of months, we are talking about weeks," an unnamed member of the Netanyahu government in the newspaper "Haaretz" quoted. Two more reasons to hurry: As winter would an attack because of poor visibility difficult. In addition, observers believe it could be in Israel's interest, even before the U.S. elections on 6 November attack. Barack Obama , U.S. president during the election campaign, could the allies, which has in the States on a major lobby fail, hardly support. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran before the UN General Assembly is now branded a "greatest threat to world peace". His office said on Thursday, Netanyahu wants to keep the end of September an appropriate speech. He travels on 27 September in New York and wants 30 September to return to Israel. According to a report of the "Times of Israel," Netanyahu will also meet with U.S. President Barack Obama. It should go further efforts to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear bomb. So far, many in the U.S. and Europe interpreted the Israeli war threats as rhetoric - a bluff in order to increase pressure on Tehran. "I do not think it's a bluff, given the danger posed if Iran is a nuclear country," said Guzansky. Even Washington now seems to be nervous. First entered the White House spokesman, Tommy Vietor, before the release of the IAEA report before the press to comment on this - and to appease: There was still time and space for negotiations with Iran.

Different colored lines

"Israel and the U.S. have very different red lines when it comes to Iran," said Guzansky. "For the United States would be an Iran with some nuclear capabilities of all bad scenarios the most acceptable and least evil. For Israel, it would be highly problematic strategic challenge." That in the months to come to a diplomatic solution is found seems increasingly unlikely. "Both sides, the U.S. and Iran pose, maximum demands in the negotiations. Iranians are now, because they might lose an ally in Syria, not compromise on its nuclear program," said Boroujerdi. "That would be for them two setbacks at a time."