The Four Keys to the Migration Agreement between Mexico and the US

The delegations of Mexico and the United States have needed eight days of intense negotiations in Washington, to reach an immigration agreement that prevents the increase of tariffs on Mexican products scheduled for next Monday. The Mexican delegation celebrated the agreement as an important victory although, in practice, the great winner has been Donald Trump. The American leader has achieved, on the one hand, that Mexico assume more efforts and competencies in immigration matters and, on the other hand, has shown that raising tariffs (or threatening to do so) can manipulate its southern neighbor according to their interests.

The joint declaration consists of four main axes that will lay the foundations for the management of this migration crisis in the coming months. First, and as confirmed by the Mexican authorities last Thursday, 6,000 soldiers will be deployed in the south of the country to control the Central Americanswho cross the border with Guatemala. According to the Mexican foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard: "what is going to be done is to give priority to the 11 municipalities on the southern border." The deployment will be effective from Monday and will mean the release of the National Guard with which López Obrador seeks to remove the Army from the streets and give way to a mixed force more appropriate for citizen security work.

MIGRATORY POLICIES BY 'REMOTE CONTROL'

The second point of the agreement refers to a matter that, although it began to be applied in December of last year, is still controversial: the implementation of section 235 (b) (2) (c) of the Immigration Law and Nationality of the USA. In general terms, this section implies "that those who cross the southern border of the United States to request asylum will be returned without delay to Mexico, where they can wait for the resolution of their requests," according to the statement.

The lack of judges has turned this application process into a hell that sometimes takes, according to data from Syracuse University, up to two years on average to be resolved. To date, in the US immigration courts there are still 700,000 cases pending , and according to the former Secretary of the Department of National Security, Kirstjen Nielsen warned in April, only one fifth of the requests "are accepted by the judges." Three days after these statements, Nielsen was dismissed from her position.

Asylum applications, both in Mexico and in the US, continue to skyrocket. In 2018, requests at US border posts have increased by 70% compared to 2017 . The arrival of the caravans has completely changed the migratory dynamics in the region. They are no longer just young people who travel alone but caravans of thousands of people among whom many families travel with children (60% of all requests during 2018 corresponded to family units).

This is a reality that they know well in the Mexican border cities, since they are the ones who finally have to assume the cost of this new policy . When the US confirmed, in December, that it was going to unilaterally apply this section, the ex-mayor of Tijuana, described it as "a terrible decision that violates the municipal authority and that does not take into account the people of Tijuana, nobody asked us our opinion". To avoid a rise in tariffs, today Mexico assumes as valid this delicate section that, although it was already in operation, as has been advanced by Chancellor Ebrard: "in three points it will be extended".

However, its application leaves many doubts in the air . For example, what will happen to the 396,579 migrants captured by US border agents during 2018 trying to enter their territory? According to this section, all those requesting asylum will be sent to Mexico while their judicial procedure is resolved. And if that procedure is resolved with rejection, who will assume the costs of deportation of the immigrant ?.

It is also unclear under what conditions and what rights immigrants will have waiting in Mexico. If the numbers of Central Americans arriving in the border cities multiply in the coming months, local governments should consider creating new shelters , shelters or even detention centers for migrants. The agreement slightly mentions this possibility by ensuring that Mexico "will offer job opportunities and access to health and education for immigrants and their families while they remain in Mexican territory."

The only notable victory for Mexican interests, besides avoiding the increase in tariffs, comes from the US backing of the Integral Development Plan proposed by López Obrador . This strategy involves creating a zone of prosperity at the origin of the crisis (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and southern Mexico) through development projects. The plan already has the support of the governments involved, as well as of ECLAC, and is the first medium-term strategy to solve this serious humanitarian crisis. However, they still have to agree on the amount of money to allocate. While from Mexico they insist that 10,500 million dollars are needed, the US commits only for the moment to allocate 5,800 million. Lastly, and in parallel to this program, López Obrador has confirmed that he will continue to offer Central Americans work and transit visas for the southern states of Mexico.

In the last point of the agreement, both countries agree to take additional measures "within a period of 90 days", if the initial strategy does not take effect. Despite the good news, López Obrador maintained, at the close of this edition of the newspaper, the convocation of a demonstration in defense of the unity of Mexicans in the face of US pressures. The scene is Tijuana, symbol of a border life destined to change drastically with the application of this new agreement between the two countries.