Tension Between US-Iran "The Situation Almost Fighting"

Iran lowers its tone while the US approaches positions towards dialogue

It happened at the very foot of the tomb of Ayatollah Khomeini. This Tuesday evening was the 30th anniversary of the death of the founder and symbol of the Revolution that dethroned the Shah, and his successor as Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, offered a speech. "Neither surrender nor surrender! To the battle with the USA!", Answered a group of acolytes who had fallen ill. To which Khamenei, slowly, replied: "Let's see, let's see, attention, nobody is talking about battle, what it's about is resisting".

'Resistance', according to the numerous times he repeated it during his parliament, seems to be the new doctrine prevailing in the Iranian Islamic Republic, as opposed to the inflamed rhetoric of yesteryear. "The essence of confrontation is the most influential weapon of a state," said Khamenei, in words collected by the Mehr agency. "The aim of the resistance is to reach a point of dissuasion in all fields," he said. He highlighted military deterrence, which he exemplified with his criticized ballistic missile program.

It is difficult to say that, in the streets of Iran, some warmongering slogans will be heard soon, after 40 years repeating themselves, fist held high. And although even the most recalcitrant say that by shouting things like "death to America!" they do not want, in truth, the death of the Americans, the image projected outside remains, at least, disturbing. Therefore, the last gesture of Khamenei, a few weeks after a surge in tension with the US, is seen as a step towards moderation.

It is not the only gesture. Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese businessman with permanent residence in the US, is about to regain his freedom after four three years and nine months in prison. Security forces arrested him in 2015, during a trip to Iran by official invitation. In 2016 he was sentenced to 10 years in prison and to pay 3.7 million euros for "deep ties" with the American Intelligence. His freedom, according to relatives of the defendant, was possible with the mediation of Lebanese President Michel Aoun.

USA ALSO REDUCES THE TONE

If, with these measures - the militarist harangues have been left behind at lower levels -, Iran seems to want to pave the way for a dialogue with the US that has not rejected in full, the US also seems to want to do the same. To begin with, one of the focal points of the escalation of tension last May, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln - Spain withdrew his frigate from his attack group before the tense chalice of the situation - has ended up docking at 320 km from the coast from Oman, far from the narrow critic of Hormuz.

"Yes, of course, I'd like to talk a lot more", was one of the responses of US President Donald Trump when, on Tuesday, the British ITV network questioned him on whether he believed he would need to take military action against Iran. "There is always a possibility, I want, No. I would say no, but there is always a possibility," he dropped, although, in recent days, even the messages of one of his hawks, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have pointed to the possibility of establishing a dialogue.

FOUR COUNTRIES ARE OFFERED TO MEET

Is this possible? On a short-term basis, no one foresees it. But, in parallel, up to four countries have rolled up their sleeves and, according to the US Institute for Peace, have served or offered to mediate between the two opposing nations. The Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has planned a trip to Iran for this June, during which he will receive the Supreme Leader Khamenei, something very unusual on official visits. It was Trump who, weeks earlier, had urged Japan to facilitate a summit with Iran.

Despite all these gestures, neither Iran nor the US seem to be still on the same page. The only tacit agreement between the leaders of both countries, believes the majority of observers, is that neither of them advocates that the current crisis leads to a war. "We are in favor of logic and talks if [the other party] respectfully sit down at the negotiating table and conform to international regulations, not if they order negotiations," Iranian President Rohani said last week.

In other words: Iran remains firm on the premise that, before speaking, the US must return to the nuclear pact and lift the draconian sanctions. For his part, Pompeo, who last November made 12 previous demands to negotiate - including whether Iran would give up its missile program, or stop confronting US interests beyond its borders - said last Sunday that his administration is ready to negotiate "without preconditions". The abyss between the two countries persists.