Sudan: The birthday after all, not a war

With such well-wishers can not come up every birthday child: The South African Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu was also came as Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki. A lot of prominence for the first birthday of the honored Southern Sudan, the recent state of Africa and the world, who had split a year ago from the Sudan. The economic and social situation, however, is not much reason to celebrate, but it was about to leave the government does not spoil the cheer: As early as 2011 when the big Independence Day celebration has spruced up the capital of Juba, has to organize musical and sporting events. "Despite the many problems it still retains a sense of excitement," says Friedbert Ottacher who travels for the charity "Light of the World" is currently in South Sudan and witnessed the celebration: "The people are not more upbeat, but still optimistic - and proud of its independence. " An independence that was fought for more than hard: Since the early 60s there was always fighting between the Khartoum government and southern Sudanese rebels given. Just since 1983, two million people become victims of the civil war, until the so-called "comprehensive peace agreement" prepared to die end of 2005. That the southern Sudanese were granted, to decide on secession from the then-largest country in Africa.

99 percent for the spin-off

What the people decide in the referendum in January 2011 would, it was clear from the outset. Would open was just how closely the result of 100 percent. It will then become 99, the separation was on 9 July 2011 occurred. Comprehensive Peace Agreement that was only on paper, and it led to a real peace not: Too many open issues remained to this day, about the exact boundary line. This new dispute came to a pre-programmed the passage of the Southern Sudanese richly bubbling oil to the Sudanese port of Port Sudan. The South was in the spin-off that is about three-quarters of the oil reserves of the state as a whole. The north were the pipelines, of which the South was dependent. So the fees in Khartoum screwed up, which brought the government in Juba to in January 2012 to close the oil tap. Much has since been puzzling over this economic suicide because of the Southern Sudan lost a beat 98 percent of its revenue. Government programs to establish a health system or at least basal infrastructure had to be radically cut. For Jan Pospisil, East expert at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs in Vienna, however, it is not certain that the decision to the south at the end hurts, "I understand that out as a long-term strategy, the assessment that there is no agreement with the . give the North will "Instead Juba trying with all his strength to implement an alternative pipeline to Kenya." The more oil is pumped through the north, the more reduced the profitability of this project, "Juba have internationally demonstrates self-confidence, high short-term a Price. Give yet there is great willingness of people to pay them, believes Friedbert Ottacher: "Many people say: We have survived more than 20 years of war, now we survive das." The time of the Civil War, with its privations, was still very present. Therefore, the present situation was often seen as not so bad.

No interest in open war

Talked with already in April of a new war, was once South Sudanese soldiers had occupied the Heglig oil field, the most important the north remaining deposit.After international protests Juba moved his troops back. However, it was "a success for the South" was, says expert Pospisil, because the action had consequential economic loss for the North. "Currently, both countries have massive economic problems and therefore difficult to finance a war," says Pospisil. Both armies were in reasonably good shape, a war would be long and bloody ". It is for both sides no chance of lasting success" Assuming rational act on both sides, it could at least be enough to avoid an open war.