The oil will decide on war and peace

Southern Sudan has oil, Sudan's infrastructure. For both revenue is vital. Therefore, they are close to a war that benefits no one. "Only a little more than a year, everything looked so good," began Alex de Waal, a leading Sudan experts, a few days ago a talk about the recent escalation between the two countries Sudan and Southern Sudan. And really: When the people voted in the South in a referendum for independence from the rest of the country, the hopes for peace were great. Today, debates about the boundaries and threatening, especially to ensure access to oil, to lead the country into another war. And these are just the major conflicts. Even the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was conciliatory shortly before the division of the largest country in Africa. "We have agreed to self-determination of southern Sudan, after we realized that unity can not be achieved by force," he said at the time. Al-Bashir himself took part in the celebration of independence, and his government was the first who recognized the new state. He was willing to "cooperate with our brothers and help them in state-building". After decades of violence was the division of a watershed for Sudan. But despite all the protestations of peace was fragile at that time. Took 22 years of civil war in which the government fought primarily in the more Arab-Muslim north and several relief groups in schwarzafrikanisch-Christian dominated south against each other. At the end of which stood in 2005 a peace agreement in which the referendum was not disclosed. Many issues remained unresolved, but it, and the two countries even after the division in any way dependent on each other. This is due primarily to the oil : three-quarters of the sources are located in the south, the oil reaches the international markets, but only on the industrial infrastructure of the North and its pipeline. So really there is no other choice but to cooperate in this field extensively. Before independence, the South made the oil revenue for the north from more than 50 percent of the state budget. Since a large portion of the proceeds is broken. Also for the use of the pipeline from the neighbors to the south Sudan receives no compensation nor the negotiations it had been unsuccessful. And the government in Khartoum faces barely able to compensate for this loss. On the contrary: The economic situation is so tense that the north in December, apparently out of pure need access to oil, which legally belonged to the south. In response, the South Sudan in January that halted oil production completely. But with that, the government of President Salva Kiir has been estimated by de Waal himself an ultimatum to resolve the conflict has made: It's just a matter of time before you run out of money. Because the south bring oil from nearly 100 percent of the state budget.