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Thursday, February 7, 2013

Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Palestine .... Middle East in 2013: war or peace?


With over 5,000 hours of flight from their country to be caught in the war of '73, Amos Yadlin was one of eight Israeli pilots who attacked the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 . Just 26 years later, and as head of military intelligence (Aman), was instrumental in the 'raid' in Syria that destroyed what Israel and the United States identified as Syrian-North Korean nuclear reactorIn his four years as head of Aman (2006-2010), received information of each rocket and missile reached the Islamist group Hamas in Gaza and the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon. But, above all, his antennae were centered incentrifuges for uranium enrichment in IranMajor General in reserve, did not participate in meetings at the highest level in Israel that led to the attack last week on a convoy of weapons (SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles) and military research center in Syria. In a meeting with foreign media at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS English) speaking on that raid. With words and silences. And not only in Syria, but Iran, Hezbollah and the negotiations with the Palestinians in the strategic assessment for 2013 by former intelligence analysts and academics INSS center in Tel Aviv who runs Yadlin. The report states that "despite increasing threats, Israel has several opportunities to improve its strategic position, for example, aninternational diplomatic solution to curb the threat of Iran's nuclear program , the resumption of dialogue with the Palestinians and expanding relationships with Sunni Muslim states. "

Is Israel attacked in Syria? Will military confrontation with Syria and / or Hezbollah?

"Since the war in 2006, Hezbollah violated the resolution 1701 of the Security Council of the UN weapons you get banned. Ehud Olmert warned that Israel would not allow the introduction in Lebanon arsenal of four types : chemical weapons, anti-aircraft missiles, rockets long-range missiles and land-sea advanced Yakhont. If confirmed what happened last week in Syria, it means somebody wanted to break these rules and that someone acted to prevent it." The advanced anti-aircraft missiles threaten the freedom of action of Israeli planes (with and without pilot) who frequently violate Lebanese airspace. Yadlin rule out an impending retaliation from Syria, Iran and Hezbollah ."Hezbollah and why should respond if the attack occurred, say, in Syrian territory?" Replies before adding wryly: "Hezbollah was created and promoted by Iran and Syria to act according to the interests of these countries. And now is not the time to wear." Syria? "In the civil war, Bashar Assad remains in power because the world has not intervened. Their army is far superior to the forces of the rebels, but now it is not interested in war to divert external front . Asad's big mistake would involving Israel, Turkey or NATO." "Now we do not expect a war but mistakes on both sides can lead to it. Syria and Hezbollah have memory and know how to react but not directly, but, for example, attacks against Israelis and committed in Thailand, New Delhi and Bulgaria or sporadic Katyushas into northern Israel not claim responsibility. "

What suits Israel the victory of the rebels or the continuity of Asad?

Yadlin recognize the "danger" of the chaos that can make a Syria dominated by opposition groups, including elements linked to Al Qaeda, but believes that " the fall of Asad strengthen Israel , as it will weaken the radical axis Iran-Syria-Hezbollah- Hamas ".

Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear plants?

Commitment to dialogue and international diplomatic option to prevent a nuclear Iran, including an agreement. But it warns: "If there is no choice and you have to choose between two difficult choices, Iran with a nuclear bomb or bomb to not have the bomb, we agree with the Government that this is the least dangerous for Israel."
"Iran has completed all the necessary components to build a nuclear bomb. If continues its current rate of uranium enrichment and, she decides to cross the red line between this spring and summer . "
Clarifies that an attack would come "only when other options have failed" and requires maximum cooperation with U.S. President Barack Obama.

If Israeli attack and Iranian response, a regional war erupt??

"The Middle East will not be involved in a large-scale war, but surely there will be a confrontation . Iran will respond in a calculated, limited, and who knows what and how Israel would react to his reaction. 're not as powerful at military as they think . "

Resumption of dialogue? Palestinians or violent confrontation?

He argues that one of the priorities of Benjamin Netanyahu must resume negotiations: "It's not so important to discuss who is to blame the stalled dialogue but resumed.'s Very important for both sides. Contrary to the most pessimistic, we do not see a third intifada . "
Supports an agreement based on the parameters of the Clinton Plan , but adds: "I see the Palestinians signed an agreement."
All these issues, which can lead to war or clashes calm punctuated by low-intensity focus of Obama's visit in late March in Jerusalem, Ramallah and Amman.

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