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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

United States l The "swing states", which defines the choice


As its name implies, the United States is a confederation of states. So when voters go to the polls next vote as U.S. citizens as well as citizens of the state in which they reside. The indirect voting system, with electoral college in the U.S. has a particularity: it gives great weight to the states, giving all the electoral votes to the party that prevails in every state. Therefore, in order to analyze the possible electoral scenarios should ignore polls that are broadcast nationally and analyze the internal situation in each state. Under that premise, the 53 U.S. states can be divided into three groups: those of Democratic tradition (California, New York, etc.), typically those Republicans (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia) and known as "swing states" , states with independent voters, who decide their vote for either party in a different way in each election. The "swing states" are states where the electoral battle is concentrated where both parties spend much of their budget on advertising and, of course, which ultimately defined the election. 

Florida, between 2000 and the specter of the weight of Latinos

The most important of this group is Florida, the fourth district of the U.S. by population size, with 29 electoral votes. In 2000 was the epicenter of a major electoral disputes in the country's history, when George W. Bush won over Al Gore surrounded by multiple allegations of irregularities. At that time, it was the Supreme Court who decided that the winner was Bush, dismissing the recount request from Democrats. In 2004, Bush won again, but the state was for Democrats in 2008, when Obama won his first term. In 2012, the fate of President Obama in Florida is tied to the large Hispanic (Cuban and Puerto Rican, traditionally closer to the Democrats) and youth. The Democratic candidate shows a slight advantage there in the polls, but that young silogra and Hispanics, two groups with a high level of abstention, actually go to vote, you could get a more comfortable victory. In a contest so hard and so tight with the result, no one wants to repeat the experience of 2000, so we will wait until the morning to have the official data.


Ohio, the state "must win"

Second in importance is Ohio, with 18 electoral votes. The demographic composition makes many analysts claim that acts as a "sample" nationally: it has the same proportion of urban and rural population nationwide, relationship is also maintained in age, religious and racial. However, this time the state is in better economic conditions than the national average, with lower unemployment, which could play into the Democrats. A particularity why all eyes converge in Ohio: in the last 50 years, all candidates who won the presidency in this state won. One thing that the Republicans know, and that bet has been strong there.


North Carolina: Obama wants to repeat the feat

When in 2008 the U.S. president won the state, snapped a nine presidential elections for Republicans. This time things will not be easy for Obama, who wants to keep the 15 electoral votes awarded by the state and for that chose to host the Democratic National Convention. However, the polls give a slight advantage to Romney.


Virginia: a third candidate can change everything

In 2008, Obama managed to break a long conservative tradition that dated 1964 by a margin of 7%. Now, Democrats and Republicans show different surveys, which are attributed the victory. In an attempt to get a key state for their aspirations, Romney included it in his "rally" final. There must not only compete against the president, but a third independent candidate, Virgil Goode, could subtract up to 5% of the conservative vote.


Wisconsin

With 10 electoral votes, is the last of the "swing states" of "double digits." The Republican candidate for vice president, Paul Ryan, a native of that state, and is the big bet to break a Republican Democrat tradition that dates back to 1984, when Ronald Reagan won reelection. However, according to the polls, Barack Obama is close to Democratic tradition continue there.


Colorado

With nine electoral votes, Obama got there one of its greatest electoral success in 2008, after eight of nine presidential Republican hands. Demographic changes in the state-and Latino-youngest president could benefit. Moreover, along with the presidency, Colorado plebiscitar√° some easing in consumption, production and marketing of marijuana, a proposal that has majority support in the state and that would bring votes to Obama. There are conflicting surveys, and the end is still open.

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