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Sunday, November 18, 2012

Increase the Israeli-Palestinian attacks while moving the truce


While the Israeli Air Force carried out this morning 50 attacks in the Gaza Strip targeting first against media related to the Islamist group Hamas-impact work in a building where numerous media-and Palestinian armed groups have fired this morning dozens of missiles at Israeli cities , including again the central Tel Aviv-contacts for a truce multiply. The arrival in Jerusalem's French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius , mediation services Intelligence  Egypt and the action a second plane but active U.S. and Turkey seek truce declared before it can start a ground operation. And the attacks do not seem to cease. Four Palestinians killed since early in the morning in the Gaza Strip at Israeli attacks, bringing to 52 the death toll from Wednesday and more than 500 wounded. 22 of the 52 dead are children, women and elderly , and that 70% of the casualties are civilians. Attacks and dialogue. There is a contradiction . The past shows that whenever Israel and Palestinian militias, or in the case of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah Shiite group - approaching a truce fire intensifies. Seek what is called "the image of the victory " . Beyond a military or diplomatic victory, instilling pursued to yours and especially the enemy the impression that you have won and that we should not "mess with you." In more academic deterrenceHence, behind Israel bombs and missiles Fajer 5 of Hamas and mutual threats lurks the will of a truce . More you will need . It is currently negotiating the conditions for ceasefire with elements like Egyptian Rafah border crossing, Israeli military activity on the border, etc ...

Hamas

Despite the heavy casualties of its armed wing and especially the death of his powerful chief Ahmed Jabari , Hamas would accept a truce on condition that Israel guarantee the order of the attacks . This was the Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniya , in a 20-minute conversation with Egyptian President, the Islamist Mohamed Mursi . This said last night that "there are indications that there is a possibility of a ceasefire soon," but acknowledged that there is still. Beyond trying to prevent Israel launched its ground operation, Hamas can not deny the pressure of his 'brothers' Mursi and Erdogan . Neither of Gazans living nightmare and five days of uncertainty after hundreds of attacks also increase as rising civilian death toll. Beyond propaganda ads as the downing of a jet fighter or missile at Jerusalem's parliament, Hamas feels successful : despite the massive air pressure, has managed fire more missiles and 900 in five days of causing offense even panic among the inhabitants of the symbol of Israel, Tel Aviv. He has done something that neither his "role model" pro-Iranian Hezbollah group the mighty has failed. Hamas negotiates to get guarantees improvements such as Egyptian andpermanent opening of the Rafah crossing .

Israel

  "I am ready for a truce if it is durable. But if Hamas does not stop their attacks, I will order an incursion into Gaza," said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , U.S. President, Barack Obama. At the start of the cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said that the Army "has attacked terrorist targets more than 1,000 and caused great damage to the weapons being fired at Israeli civilians." "Hamas is paying a high price and the Israeli army is poised for a significant expansion of the operation." Israel is now in the key moment. Decide: agree to the offense or to begin the second phase with the input of troops in the densely populated Gaza Strip. Authorization to mobilize up to 75,000 reservists (not that that has mobilized) invites us to think that Earth might order the option. Although not bluffing and this reporter has seen the weekend and quota arrangements around Gaza, Netanyahu wants to avoid. First, because in the house to house search of militants, weapons and launchers could be casualties among soldiers and increase the number of civilian deaths in Gaza . Second, we are two months before the election . Netanyahu is the favorite to become prime minister again. What was before 'Pilar Defensive' and will be later. But a ground invasion could break the consensus in Israel on an air operation from the beginning has the majority support of the population.

A truce?

The missiles that have struck this morning in a house in Ashdod, causing hurt , and especially in Tel Aviv do not help to make a decision but if given more urgency. Netanyahu seeks a lasting truce and complete for the inhabitants of the south. If not, it would be criticized in public. Israeli analyst Yoav Limor explains the offense and the day after: "For months, the Army requested the Government a strong response to the increasingly frequent attacks by terrorists from Gaza. More than a million people living under the missiles Hamas and Salafist groups. On Saturday, shot a jeep our seriously wounding a soldier. Israel decided to change the rules and return deterrence against Hamas but postponed the offensive due to rain (which hurts the Air Force) and the expected Opportunity (Jabari) ". If anything, today Israel is presumed to have killed most of the long-range missiles in Gaza and for future duels with Hezbollah and Iran the success of the Iron Dome anti-missile battery which has a success rate of 90% .

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