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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The race to the White House l Ten lessons from the last debate

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney clashed on Monday in the final against each other in the race for the White House. The discussion dealt with foreign policy. Although candidates managed to speak of economics, which is the most important issue for most Americans and they will decide the outcome of the polls . These are the lessons of the last TV duel. Are exactly two weeks to election day.

1. Obama was stronger

The President confirmed the predictions and won the debate on points. Foreign policy tends to favor the incumbent, who has four years to address global challenges in the White House. Obama knows much more than his opponent about what happens in the world and it showed on Tuesday with a solid and well-constructed speech .

2. Romney played no scare

The Republican candidate chose not to use both weapons had now within reach: the bombing that killed four Americans in Benghazi and the controversy surrounding the possible negotiations in Iran .Romney chose to be cautious for fear of transmitting the idea that a president would be trigger happy. He played for a draw and so lost.But he left without making serious mistakes and left the impression that it is ready to be commander in chief. A test that he had to pass.

3. Romney in hostile territory

Foreign policy always favors the president. But even on this occasion by the skills of the Republican candidate, who has based his campaign on economic issues and has ignored what is happening on the international scene. Other governors like Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2000 chose a second with experience in global affairs. Romney chose young congressman Paul Ryan, which reinforces its commitment to domestic issues. In the third debate offered firmly but without burning warrior. She felt stiff when reciting the phrases of his advisers. improved when the debate the economy slid . But then it was too late.

4. The most boring match

Only 4% of Americans believe that foreign policy is the most important issue in this election. This figure helps to understand why the debate was so boring and why Romney was less aggressive than in the first two appointments. The Republican candidate thought better than to throw open grave against the president in a matter that only concerns citizens. Its strategic calculation was that it suited him more present as a moderate and conciliatory president . Let's wait to see if it was a successful bid.

5. The Stone Guest

George W. Bush was the star of the foreign policy debate. Obama endorsed some of their assumptions and is presented as a "hawk" on issues like Iran or the use of drones in the fight against terrorism. Romney, however, made ​​every effort to distance himself from the poisoned legacy of former president and tried to convince the electorate that did not want to start an intervention like Iran or Afghanistan.

6. Less Iran and more unemployment

Both candidates strove to divert the discussion to the economy the most important issue for polls show half of Americans. In this area Romney was again better than his opponent and underlined the key points of your message. But both failed to sign any obviousObama unscathed and Boca Raton.

7. The advantages of the president

Obama appeared in his first sentence as "commander in chief" and then mentioned the death of Osama bin Laden . His goal was to refute those who portray him as a second Jimmy Carter and presented as a weak president who has led the U.S. to abdicate its global leadership. Romney was less aggressive than at other times.He accused the president of "making a tour to apologize" for the mistakes of the U.S.. But he did not target or on issues like Iran Benghazi and said that he agreed with him in the management of the Syrian crisis and withdrawal from Afghanistan. There was less discussion than usual because it suited neither disagree

8. Drawn

The race is very close and it does not seem that the victory of Obama in the last debate you move. The average web produced by the RCP puts the Republican candidate a few tenths ahead of his opponent . This figure reflects the polarization of the campaign and that indicates that Obama and Romney must sprint to the end.

9. The Midwest

Romney is ahead in some national polls. But polls place him behind in the battleground states of the Midwest. Places like Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin are the last defense of the president, which resists better there than in states like Florida , Virginia and New Hampshire .The Republican candidate will only come to the White House if improvement in the Midwest. A region in which Obama is reaping the electoral gains of the bailout of the automobile industry and where by now retains a small advantage but enough to win.

10. Romney depends abstention

There are still two weeks to the elections. Many citizens have voted and the majority have decided who to vote for. The polls predict a closely fought battle in the final days of the campaign, warning that the winner is determined by the extent of participation. Will the president take to the polls who supported him four years ago and now hesitating between staying home or voting for him? Obama came to the White House with the votes of women, young people, Hispanics and blacks. Sectors of the population who do not usually go to the polls and among them the illusion has evaporated in your hands the victory of Obama. Romney will win if they will not vote.


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