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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Where Pakistan stands!

Pakistan’s current situation

In describing Pakistan’s current situation I have sometimes used the metaphor ‘a perfect storm’. The storm appears to have passed but it has left a weakened country that continues to face a number of structural problems in a number of areas.It would be useful to recall what produced the storm in the first place in order to see in which direction the country is headed and how it can be made to achieve the potential that still exists to ensure a better future for its 170 million people. A year ago the economy was under great strain. Foreign reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan were declining at an unsustainable rate. There was fear that if help did not arrive in time Islamabad would have to default on some of its foreign obligations thus bringing the country to the point of bankruptcy. The drain on foreign reserves was the result, in part, of the increase in the price of oil. In July 2008 the closing price per barrel of oil touched $147.27 three times the price a year earlier. Oil has become an important commodity for Pakistan as the country’s dependence on it for generating electricity has increased. The increase in the price of oil and a sharp reduction in foreign exchange reserves meant that the country was not able to import as much fuel as needed. This led to serious power shortages which, in turn, resulted in loadshedding that lasted for several hours a day during the peak of the summer. The summer of 2008 was warmer than normal adding to public discomfort. It also took a heavy economic toll. According to one estimate, the power crisis cost the economy seven per cent of industrial output and two per cent of the gross domestic product. The strain on the economy was felt precisely at the time when the process of political transition was going through many difficult motions. The elections held in February 2008 had made clear that the military would have to give up its political control. Under President Pervez Musharraf, the military had made a desperate attempt to keep its grip on the lever of power. On Nov 3, 2007 the president had introduced a new ‘constitutional order’ which had given him additional powers. The president felt that he needed that power to discipline the judiciary which, backed by a remarkable movement led by the legal community, had gathered enough strength to try and bring the executive in line. This movement was launched when President Musharraf dismissed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry earlier that year. Chaudhry was reinstated by the courts but was out again in November after the emergency. Emboldened by its earlier success in support of the Chief Justice, the legal community agitated against what it called President Musharraf’s second coup. Supported by the civil society, it put enough pressure on the president for him to yield and give up the powers he had assumed. The final blow was delivered by the February 2008 elections. It took the politicians several months before they were able to get President Musharraf out of his office. It took that long for the reason that the main political parties were not able to reach an agreement on the shape of the political structure they wished to build in the country. Should Pakistan choose to be a parliamentary democracy with all power resting in the National Assembly or should it be a hybrid system in which power was shared between the president and the parliament? The question remains unanswered. Unsettled economic and political systems gave space to the forces of Islamic extremism. They were able to expand their reach by the use of force and gained control in several areas in the northwest including Swat and its adjoining districts. It was at that time that the military was authorised by the civilian leadership to start an operation that would rid the area of the militants and later re-establish the writ of the state over the tribal areas. The first part of this mission has been achieved. The economy is coming out of a deep crisis, helped in part by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. A group of countries that Islamabad calls the Friends of Pakistan met in Tokyo a few months ago and pledged significant amounts of resources. The US is set to provide substantial assistance — to the tune of $1.5bn a year — which will be sustained for at least five years. Foreign reserves have been rebuilt to the point where the country can comfortably finance its large trade deficit. There is some indication that the level of domestic investment may have also begun to pick up although foreign direct investment has as yet to return. On the political side, tensions between the two mainstream parties have heated up somewhat but have not yet reached the point at which the stability of the system could be seriously threatened. It appears that the main political leaders are anxious not to do anything that would tempt the military to reassert itself. But as already indicated the most significant development has been on the terrorism front. Where will Pakistan go from here? To answer that question we should look at how the country got into such a troubled state to begin with, a subject that will be focused on in the coming weeks.

Powerful tsunami hits South Pacific, leaves 36 dead

Fagatogo, American Samoa

The death toll from a massive South Pacific earthquake and tsunami has risen to at least 36 and is expected to rise significantly, officials said.There were 22 confirmed dead in American Samoa and 14 in Samoa with unconfirmed reports of scores more missing feared dead following the 8.0 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami.‘We have 22 confirmed dead and it could go much higher,’ Michael Sala, Homeland Security director in American Samoa, told AFP. ‘It could take a week or so before we know the full extent.’ The eastern part of American Samoa was without power and water supplies after the devastating earthquake, which struck at 6:48 am. Sala said it was the wall of water, which he estimated at 25-feet high, which did most of the damage as it swept ashore about 20 minutes after the earthquake, demolishing buildings in coastal areas. Red Cross officials in Samoa put the initial death toll at 14 but said it would probably rise as communications were re-established with outlying areas where villages were flattened by the tsunami. A powerful Pacific Ocean earthquake spawned towering tsunami waves that swept ashore on Samoa and American Samoa early Tuesday, flattening villages, killing dozens of people and leaving several workers missing at devastated National Park Service facilities. Cars and people were swept out to sea by the fast-churning water as survivors fled to high ground, where they remained huddled hours later. Signs of devastation were everywhere, with a giant boat getting washed ashore and coming to rest on the edge of a highway and floodwaters swallowing up cars and homes. The quake, with a magnitude between 8.0 and 8.3, struck around dawn about 20 miles below the ocean floor, 120 miles from American Samoa, a US territory that is home to 65,000 people. Hampered by power and communications outages, officials hours later struggled to assess the damage and casualties. American Samoa Gov. Togiola Tulafono said at least 50 were injured, in addition to the deaths. America Samoa is home to a US national park that appeared to be especially hard-hit. Holly Bundock, spokeswoman for the National Park Service’s Pacific West Region in Oakland, Calif., said the superintendent of the park and another staffers had been able to locate only 20 percent of the park’s 13 to 15 employees and 30 to 50 volunteers. Mike Reynolds, superintendent of the National Park of American Samoa, was quoted as saying four tsunami waves 15 to 20 feet high roared ashore soon afterward, reaching up to a mile inland. Holly Bundock, spokeswoman for the National Park Service’s Pacific West Region in Oakland, California, said Reynolds spoke to officials from under a coconut tree uphill from Pago Pago Harbor and reported that the park’s visitor centre and offices appeared to have been destroyed. Residents in both Samoa and American Samoa reported being shaken awake by the quake, which lasted two to three minutes. The initial quake was followed by at least three aftershocks of at least 5.6 magnitude. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a general alert from American Samoa to New Zealand; Tonga suffered some coastal damage from 13-foot waves. New Zealander Graeme Ansell said the beach village of Sau Sau Beach Fale was levelled. ‘It was very quick. The whole village has been wiped out,’ Ansell told New Zealand’s National Radio from a hill near Samoa’s capital, Apia. ‘There’s not a building standing. We’ve all clambered up hills, and one of our party has a broken leg. There will be people in a great lot of need ‘round here.’ The Samoan capital was virtually deserted with schools and businesses closed. Local media said they had reports of landslides in the Solosolo region of the main Samoan island of Upolu and damage to plantations in the countryside outside Apia. Rescue workers found a scene of destruction and debris with cars overturned or stuck in mud, and rockslides hit some roads. Several students were seen ransacking a gas station-convenience store.Eni Faleomavaega, who represents American Samoa as a non-voting delegate in the US House, said he had talked to people by telephone who said that Pago Pago – just a few feet above sea level – was levelled. Several hundred people had their homes destroyed, although getting more concrete information has been difficult, he said. Chicken of the Sea’s tuna packing plant in American Samoa was closed after the tsunami hit, although the facility wasn’t damaged, the San Diego-based company said in a statement. Tuna canneries are American Samoa’s dominant industry, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of all economic activity. Prior to the tsunami, Chicken of the Sea had announced plans to close the plant on Wednesday, laying off more than 2,100 workers. Rear Adm. Manson Brown, Coast Guard commander for the Pacific region, said the Coast Guard is in the early stages of assessing what resources to send to American Samoa. Coast Guard spokesman Lt. John Titchen said a C-130 was being dispatched Wednesday from Hawaii to deliver aid, assess damage and take the governor back home. A New Zealand air force P3 Orion maritime search airplane also was being sent. One of the runways at Pago Pago International Airport was being cleared of widespread debris for emergency use, Federal Aviation Administration spokesman Ian Gregor said in Los Angeles.

Two drone strikes kill 12 in Waziristan

US drone

Twelve militants, some foreigners among them, were killed and another six injured in two US drone attacks in North and South Waziristan on Tuesday. A drone fired two missiles at the house of Irfan Shamankhel, son of Sher Alam Mehsud, a local commander of the banned Tehrik Taliban Pakistan in South Waziristan. The foreigners killed in the attack remained unidentified. Since the death of Baitullah Mehsud in a drone attack in August, 65 Taliban, including local and foreigners, have been killed in 10 attacks by US drones in South Waziristan. An intelligence official told Dawn that the US drones had been hovering above the Sara Rogha area since morning and a thick column of smoke started billowing from the house after the attack. The house that came under attack was reduced to ashes. Since 2004, militancy has spread across the South Waziristan Agency, reducing powers of political authorities. Officials at the office of the political agent expressed ignorance about the incident, but the intelligence official confirmed that the attack had taken place. Fears of a military operation in South Waziristan have touched off a wave of migration to adjacent Dera Ismail Khan and Tank districts. In another attack in the evening, two missiles were fired from a drone on the house of Mustafa in Dandy Darpakhel. North Waziristan. Seven militants were killed and five others injured. Local people said that militants had cordoned off the entire area and were retrieving bodies. Sources said that Mustafa was an Afghan national and had close relations with Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani. Thick smoke was seen rising from the compound. Agencies add: Unmanned drones have carried out more than 70 missile attacks in the border region over the last year, but Washington rarely acknowledges the strikes. TheUnited States says the mountainous region is a base for militant attacks on American and other Nato troops in Afghanistan and a stronghold of Al Qaeda’s senior leadership. South Waziristan has seen a spike in violence in recent days, including suicide attacks and rocket and mortar exchanges between the Taliban and the Pakistani army. The army has moved into other areas in the northwest over the last year, but has so far avoided major operations in Waziristan. Residents of Dandey Darpakhel village, the scene of the second strike, said they saw drones flying over the area for hours before the strike. ‘We heard big explosions,’ said villager Ahmad Hasan. ‘I went to the scene and saw three bodies. I also saw three or four people with serious wounds.’The village is home to a religious seminary of Al Qaeda-linked Taliban leader Siraj Haqqani. The US has accused the Haqqani network of masterminding beheadings and suicide bombings in Afghanistan.